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  • PV Monitoring Phase 1 

    There has been a large amount of solar installed on the grid in the past six years. There is no obligation for a panel owner to provide National Grid with metering data, which is a challenge when trying to forecast and balance the grid. This project is one of four looking at the challenge of Solar PV - focusing on utilising solar energy and gaining a better understanding, so it can be used more effectively and we can forecast more accurately as we transition to a low carbon grid.

    In this project we installed solar panels at two of our National Grid sites, and collected the data that was being sent back to the Electricity Control Centre in Wokingham. The aim of the project is to understand the challenges and costs of solar installation, and use this approach to collate and monitor generation.

    Project Partners:

    Invisible Systems, GMI Energy

     .Solar PV Forcasting 1 


     

     
     

    To find out more about this project, download the NIA Annual Summary 2015/16 (page 19)

    PV Monitoring Phase 2

    There has been a large amount of solar installed on the grid in the past six years. There is no obligation for a panel owner to provide National Grid with metering data, which is a challenge when trying to forecast and balance the grid. 

    With more than 650,000 individual sites scattered across the country, the challenge for National Grid is to know how much solar is being generated and where it is feeding into the network. This project is one of four looking at the challenge of Solar PV - focusing on utilising solar energy and gaining a better understanding, so it can be used more effectively and we can forecast more accurately as we transition to a low carbon grid. The aim of this project is to establish a good understanding of local variations in solar, and to develop a methodology for using metered generation data from a sample of solar sites to estimate total GB solar generation. The research has led to the development of the Sheffield Solar website. This gives an update on the level of GB solar on a national and regional level every 30 minutes. Since March this year it has been used by the Electricity Control Centre at Wokingham to assist with establishing accurate forecasts. 

    Project partners

    The University of Sheffield

    .Solar PV Monitoring 2

    To find out more visit the Sheffield Solar website

    Video

    Solar PV Forecasting Phase 1

    There has been a large amount of solar installed on the grid in the past six years. There is no obligation for a panel owner to provide National Grid with metering data, which is a challenge when trying to forecast and balance the grid.

    Generation of solar is weather dependent and constantly increasing as more people install solar panels. The increase in generation has led to demand forecasting error and a need for higher reserve levels. The key weather variable that determines the PV forecast model is irradiance. Sunshine is subject to significant temporal and spatial variation due to the complex and dynamic distribution of cloud. 

    This project is one of four looking at the challenge of Solar PV - focusing on utilising solar energy and gaining a better understanding, so it can be used more effectively and we can forecast more accurately as we transition to a low carbon grid.

    The project aims to estimate surface radiation by using Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models to correctly establish several factors related to clouds, such as how much cloud cover there is, the thickness of the cloud and how these factors evolve over time. There are aims to improve the NWP methods and strong potential to develop post-processing techniques and statistical correction tools to try and improve the forecast provided to National Grid. The research will lead to an improved understanding of handling uncertainties in cloud, and establish how to effectively apply statistical techniques to solar radiation. The outcomes of the project will improve National Grid’s operational PV power forecasts, including those published for industry visibility. A reduction in error leads to reduced balancing costs and ultimately reduced costs for consumers.

    Project Partners:

    Met Office

     .Solar PV Forcasting 1 

    Video


    Solar PV Forecasting Phase 2

    A recent dramatic increase in installed photovoltaic generation is now impacting the electricity demand profile. The influence has been challenging to predict and is currently leading to significant demand forecast errors. The total solar capacity in Great Britain is now in excess of 9.3GW, and is forecast to rise to 15.7GW by 2020. All of this capacity is embedded in the distribution networks. Currently National Grid has a simplified transfer model to convert solar irradiance into generated power. This model has not been tested against actual solar generation data because of the lack of data available. 

    This project is one of four looking at the challenge of Solar PV - focusing on utilising solar energy and gaining a better understanding, so it can be used more effectively and we can forecast more accurately as we transition to a low carbon grid.

    This project has been developed to understand the variability of solar generation and to improve solar PV generation forecasting in the medium and short term. The project will look at data from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and provide a history of atmospheric behaviour and weather forecast predictions. This will lead to an improved accuracy in GB electricity demand forecasts during daylight hours. It will also consider effects of the variability of solar generation, and how it interacts with other variable generation, particularly wind, at higher penetration levels. 


    Project Partners:

    University of Reading

    .Solar PV Forcasting 2